Top Percolating Topics on a Fun-Sunday

Without much preamble and pomp I will get to the point, in order to make these typographical-diarrhea sessions more reader friendly for the dozens and dozens (edit: dozens should have remained singular) of readers surfing my code, I will try a new format.

1. Insidious NBA

In former posts I have delved into a stories revolving around the NBA’s bigger picture. The Death of Parity looked at the alarming trend of super-friends creating super-teams and the impact it would have to the future of the NBA.

A PSA for Fanatics- Soaps and Sports (which is an awful title looking back) highlighted the melo-dramatics behind the Carmelo Anthony trade saga and some of the NBA’s biggest power-players behind the scenes.

Another somewhat unlikely puppet-master has emerged as told in this outstanding piece by Adrian Wajnarowski of Yahoo! Sports. It highlights the reemergence of Isaiah Thomas, his influence on the New York Knicks and the incompetence of James Dolan, owner, New York Knicks.

These convoluted and insidious issues have been making a slow trot down the NBA’s yellow brick road for some time now and will meet at the collective bargaining table. The big question is when they meet the all powerful wizard- David Stern, whether he will stick to the script and feign grievance toward people like Wordwide Wes, who has been the common facilitator in all these scenario’s, or actually do something about it.

2. Raptors at the Trade Deadline

Much was/is made of the TPE (traded player exception) obtained in the Chris Bosh trade with Miami that allows Toronto to take on a player or combination of players totaling roughly $12-million without having to be under the cap.

This asset has diminished daily since the trade last summer. The TPE will not be used at the trade deadline. If the Raptors were in a position to make a playoff push the chances of it being expensed would increase but the salary it would take on would prove to be too expensive for a non-playoff team.

Once a team is over the tax threshold, they pay double the dollar amount for every dollar they are over. This is needless spending for a team going nowhere this season. The more likely scenario is that they utilize the TPE around the draft or beginning of free agency.

3. Hard-luck Raps

Piggybacking on the last point the Raptors can’t seem to get a break. The year they acquire an asset that would bring sublime flexibility two other teams also acquire the same asset making the laws of scarcity moot. Cleveland and Utah (before they used their TPE to acquire Al Jefferson) would compete in any trade involving a TPE making its value low.

Add to that equation the fact that the majority of NBA teams have cleared the decks over the last few seasons to be a player in last summer’s free agency and this summer’s CBA (collective bargaining agreement) and it’s created the perfect storm of high supply and low demand, an exact opposite of what the Raptors need to be successful in any trade discussions.
More back luck?

The model for being a successful franchise in the salary cap era is to rebuild through the draft. The NBA is a league that depends on superstars and a franchise will sometimes need to put themselves in a position to be lucky by losing and getting a higher pick in the draft.

A high pick is no guarantee though as Raptors fans know all too well. In 2006 the Raptors got lucky in a sense by winning the draft lottery and selecting number one overall. The problem is the 2006 draft looks like one of the worst drafts in recent history, producing no real superstar.

The Raptors are playing the part well this season to do the same thing, be in a position to be lucky, but striking out in a superstar-less draft. There may end up being players that can turn franchises around, but right now it looks like the same old story for the Raptors.

- J.Moore

A PSA for Fanatics

Soaps and Sports

Growing up my grandmother used to love watching her “stories”. To some ladies and men General Hospital was their daily medicine, for others it was The Young and the Restless but for this special lady it was Coronation Street, the long-running CBC soap. As a spritely young tike, I couldn’t fathom the value of Britt’s in a perpetual state of flux but as they say “different strokes” right?

This is a PSA for those that will never understand the obsession some have with professional sports. I am not talking the fans that need to see the game, enjoy it and let go from closing buzzer to opening bell. I am referring to the fanatics in the truest sense of the word. These are the men and women that read about it, listen to it, watch it, think about it and in some cases write about it in a way that makes one wonder how they function in the “real world”.

The answer is simple; these are our “stories” as the famous street was to my grandmother.

As media coverage grows, especially in the sports & entertainment realm, the behind the scenes stories that were in the past left only to those in the inner-sanctum of the sport have become available, dissected and almost or as enthralling as the grace that inhabits the court, ice, field, diamond or pitch.

The National Basketball League is going through one of the most enthralling periods with more twists, turns and characters since the Air Jordon era. An era that reads like a Sorkin-esque (see: The Social Network, The West Wing, A Few Good Men) script with Scorsese behind the lens.

William Wesley

First let me introduce some of the players. Meet William Wesley aka Worldwide Wes:

http://bit.ly/3ZG0aQ

This is a man that may be the most influential man in the NBA. Yes, more influential then a GM, owner or even the commish David Stern. The simple reason, and these reason are never such, is because the NBA is a player-driven league. Every league has stars but NBA players by the nature of the sport hold more power then players in other sports because of scarcity; there are fewer players on an NBA roster than any other sport, making them more valuable. Worldwide Wes’ core competency is getting close to the biggest players in the game and more importantly gaining influence of their business decisions.

Mikhail Prokhorov

Now Meet Mikhail Prokhorov, the Russian billionaire owner of the New Jersey Nets. A polarizing figure that has speculated ties to the Russian mafia.

http://bit.ly/dLEH9E

Now why would a billionaire buy into one of the least valued franchise that lacks talent and a viable place to play the game? Two reasons: the first is ego. This is a man that has defied the odds and come out on top at every delineation. The second reason is far more calculated, the New Jersey Nets will soon become the Brooklyn Nets. Possibly the shortest move, distance wise, in sports history might potentially work out to be the most valuable move from a dollars and cents perspective.

How do these two connect?

Carmelo Anthony.

In the summer of 2010 Wesley and Prokhorov had a shared goal, eventually get LeBron James to the state of New York. Wesley, acting as an advisor to James dreaming of the economic boom James would bring to himself and his business if James played for the Knickerbockers and Prokhorov aiming to make the Nets look like a viable franchise entering the move to Brooklyn.

Both parties were spurned when James decided to take his talents to South Beach. They have now set their sights on Anthony, the latest superstar that has placed himself on the market by requesting a trade from his current team.

http://yhoo.it/dGxJpe

With the big-business melodrama (excuse the pun) that is playing out behind the scenes in this rare instance one has to feel for the player. He would seem to be a pawn in a bigger picture that involves men looking out for their own interests bound to come together for mutual benefit.

How will this play out? Who knows…

One thing that should be noted, CAA (Creative Artists Agency) is the group that represents the NBA’s biggest stars including Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. The agency also has a huge stake in the entertainment industry including connections with Nets minority owner Jay Z.

The collective bargaining agreement expires July 1. David Stern may have more issues on the agenda then simple salary reduction and hard cap.

- J.Moore

The Death of Parity?

Success Begets Success and Superstars Beget Superstars

In months and years leading to the 2010 offseason, you remember that one right (see James, LeBron and Bosh, Chris), the prevailing wisdom from those in the know and those in the don’t know was that three superstars on the same team, while theoretically possible, was so improbable it prompted immediate and prolonged laughter.

Well it turns out the city of Cleveland was not the only one looking foolish in August 2010, the preverbal egg was all over our collective faces.

Fast-forward only half a season later and now not only has the Miami Heat, pulling-off the major coup that netted (excuse the pun) the big (LeBron), the talented (Wade) and the lanky (Bosh), broken the mold but they have also started the trend.

Followers of the NBA have been bored to death sitting and waiting with not so baited breath for the Carmelo Anthony situation to be resolved. On the surface the situation is typical, another superstar requesting a trade. However, the second layer off the onion reveals a deeper “problem” for the NBA. For the second year in a row, a superstar wants to leave a successful small-market team in pursuit of an opportunity to play with superstar friends, masked with proclamations of championship aspirations.

Chris Paul has also made deliberate overtures to his club that he’d like to be traded to a team like New York that sports Amare Stoudemire and rumored to acquire Carmelo Anothony. Combine those rumors within recent ones involving Dwight Howard and what does this all mean?

The death of parity in the NBA.

What is parity you ask, and why does it matter?

Well since you asked…

Parity is essentially the state or condition of being equal. In sports terms it means that wins and losses can fluctuate from year to year for any team. In any given year, your favourite team has a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

The four major North American sports leagues (NBA, NHL, MLB, NFL) have sought parity over the last two decades by introducing salary restrictions and caps to keep interest and attendance high in markets that cannot compete financially with major markets such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.

The problem is that any rule that can be made can be broken and in the NBA General Managers have found ways to circumvent salary cap restrictions and build super-teams such as the Lakers, Celtics and now Heat.

If the trend continues and the allocation of assets continues to dissipate the “middle class” of basketball, 20 of the 30 NBA communities will be made irrelevant because teams will be playing for very little.

So is parity or the trend that might produce its death good or bad?

On one hand it will create possible dynasties like in the 60s, 70s and 80s, not to mention uber-competitive matches between a handful of teams.

On the other hand hope and interest will wane for local teams, thus affecting league attendance and theoretically league revenues.

What do you think, is the death of parity good or bad?

- J.Moore

The Perfect Game…

To most Raptors fans, the game last night at the ACC between the not-so Hot-lanta (see weather reports for the Atlanta area) and the local not-so purple Dino’s ended with a heart fluttering miss and a sense that the Raptors missed out on another opportunity.

What fans should have felt was a sigh of relief. Entering the game between one of the Eastern Conferences best teams, the Raptors held the dual role of being one of the conferences worst while still have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.
This dual role is dangerous on numerous fronts but let us just explore a few. The first is obvious; a mini four or five game-winning streak could easily put them in the seventh or eighth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. A picture that would look pretty grim after being swept by the Bosh-inhabited Miami Heat, even more grim when considering that a rebuilding team sacrificed as many as 10-15 draft slots for a few more wins and “playoff experience”.

Let Craziness Ensue

The other reason is the fragile and sensitive states of psyche basketball fans in Toronto have. So far this season has been met with tempered expectations and bold proclamations from fans have been severely muted. However, if this incarnation of the Raptors has the label of “playoff team” beside it, things could get messy fast going into next season. The last thing this franchise needs is public pressure on a trigger-happy GM to make a quick-fix move that sacrifices future.

The 70-30 Rule

The Toronto Raptors have long been a middle of the pack team. Very seldom, especially in the last decade has the team been in the bottom five, as far as record, in the league. They tend to finish in or around the playoffs, slightly in or slightly out. This is a major problem. The last position you want your team rank to be is in the middle 70% of the league. To have long-term sustainable success the team needs to be in the bottom 15% in the league, get lucky in the draft and then, and only then, can the team make the climb into the top 15%.

The Perfect Game

Back to the game. It was perfect. One of the more entertaining games of the season with plenty of offence, spectacular individual performances from Leandro Barbosa, Jamal Crawford and Andrea Bargnani and plenty of nail biting drama. For a minute I actually thought the Raptors might have won...

The Raptors lost, now fans rejoice!

NBA Dumps Canada?

The National Basketball League took on Canada in 1995 to establish an international market. Expansion teams were introduced in Toronto and Vancouver, six years later half of the NBA’s Canadian content had relocated to Memphis and only the Toronto Raptors were left.

Franchise Viability?

Recently reports out of major US markets have questioned the long-term viability of the Toronto Raptors franchise citing their inability to retain superstar players. This is after an offseason which included their superstar Chris Bosh spurning them for the comfort in South Beach and their prize offseason acquisition from a summer ago dumping on the Raptors franchise to anyone that would listen.

The Break-Ups

Other notable players that dumped Toronto? The list is long:

Chris Bosh- left to be Batgirl to LeBron James (Batman) and Dwayne Wade (Robin)

Hedo Turkoglu- trust me Hedo, the break-up was mutual

Vince Carter- his eyes were already wandering by the time the three-month saga ended

Tracy McGrady- upset over TV privileges (couldn’t get ESPN in Canada), got news for you bud, this is a hallmark issue in any relationship

Damon Stoudamire- our first love, the first one always hurts the most

The problem with the proclamation that star players don’t want to stay in Toronto is that of that list, the two legitimate superstars, Vince Carter and Chris Bosh, both signed long term contracts with the club and stayed in Hogtown for 6 ½ and 7 seasons respectively.

Some Fun Facts

For fun though, because that’s what it’s all about, lets forget about the star player argument and just look at the facts.

2010: 14

2009: 10

2008: 9

2007: 13

2006: 17

2005: 16

2004: 8

2003: 10

2002: 4

2001: 6

Those were the rankings for the Toronto Raptors attendance over the last decade. Only twice do they rank in the bottom half (average rank is 9.7) and when you consider the team made the playoffs only 3 times in that 10 year period it’s easy to see that contrary to reports down south this is not just a hockey town.

More facts rather than speculative sensationalist journalism? Sure…

$400-million

That is valuation of the Raptors franchise which ranks 11th in the NBA according to Forbes magazine. So while I thank those whom are concerned on behalf of the Raptors, I’ll say it politely in classic Canadian style with a coy smile and through clenched teeth.

So what do we do? How do we educate or will winning shut the naysayers up?

- J.Moore

Ninety and Oh

Intensity was the word bandied about the Toronto Raptors camp for most of last week. The natural reaction to this "news" would be to believe once they were in a real game situation they would flop worse then Vlade in the post... (see LA Lakers and Sacramento Kings center circa 1989-2005) I believe they call it 'Murphy's Law' or something to that affect.

To the surprise of most, they looked good... They looked intense, energized and like a legitimate team. It was a great night! However it was preseason, it was one night and it was against a tired Phoenix team that was playing a back-to-back.

So while the extremist in me (fanatical not religious) would like to make bold proclamations such as:

Linas Kleiza will be the leading scorer on this team,

David Anderson will be an integral part of a team that has legitimate playoff hopes,

and

This team will win as many games as last year and be 8th in the east, I will refrain from making those statements.

Instead I will highlight the highs and lows from 48 minutes of basketball.

the good

Linas Kleiza

Even after an outstanding summer with the Lithuanian national team I was cautiously optimistic surrounding his merits as a legitimate NBA player. I thought his game, specifically his scoring prowess, might translate better in the international game, based less on athletics,0 then in the NBA.

20 minutes of action has convinced me he will be a force. How much of a force is to be determined but it's obvious the man can score. The best way to highlight why would be his instincts. Kleiza has a knack for putting the ball in the hole. He shows range with his jump shot, an ability to get his shot off quickly and a fluidity to his in the post that makes him extremely efficient.

Jose Calderon

The stats will not show anything awe-inspiring or revolutionary but it was the changes in Calderon's off-the-ball activity that puts him on this list. Calderon still excels at facilitating an offence, hitting open jump shots and flapping his hands (this last point will never change).

What was more surprising and encouraging was how active he was on defence. The new system that coach Jay Triano has implemented is predicated on pressuring the ball to force turnovers. The mere mention of this with an attachment of Jose Calderon must give Raptor fans nightmares of blow-byes and breakdowns.

This was not the case for at least one game. It looks like Jose is in great shape and has some extra burn to his step. Over the last two years it looked as if Jose was in his mid-late 30s not mid-late 20s. If he can keep this kind of energy up and continue to hide his thinning hair, Raptors fans might uniformly embrace Calderon like they did in 2006.

2nd Unit

If the line-ups and rotations were to stay the same, this would be a very dangerous group.

Jarrett Jack, Leandro Barbosa, Sonny Weems, Amir Johnson = quick, athletic, frenetic, intense

These guys will single-handidly change games when they play together in the most entertaining of ways- turning good defence into transition opportunities.

In the early part of this decade Hubie Brown was coaching the Memphis Grizzlies and set up a two-tiered line up system that played 10 guys all equal minutes. There was no real distinction (minutes-wise) between the starters and back-ups.

A similar deployment of talent could be used by this incarnation of the Raptors with no 'real' star player.

the bad

Transition Defence

In large part the defence was good, the major wart that continues to show annually is transition defence. When the locals usually get hit with a disheartening blow it has to do with a leak out transition basket and that is a result of lack of focus.

Transition defence comes down to focusing on your man and sticking to him. There were a number of times, especially in the first quarter against the Phoenix starters, when the Raptors were beat down the floor by guys like Grant Hill, 38 year old Grant Hill with wonky knees.

All the full-court pressure, traps and defensive intensity will be negated if the Raptors cannot focus on this one simple concept.

Offence

It was incredible, the offence Wednesday night looked like it was performed by a group that had played together for the first time! Which is about right for a line-up with two new starters and a group that has never played in an offence not focused on Chris Bosh.

There was confusion amongst some of the staters, stagnation based on indecision and missed shots based in theory on the fact the players weren't ready or convinced when to shoot.

This along with the unforced turnovers should clear up once the players become familiar and more plays are implemented that are designed to start the offence (most likely centered around Andrea Bargnani and Linas Kleiza).

Andrea Bargnani

What was clear, expected and will continue to be a talking point as the preseason and regular season progresses is that Bargnani struggles with being the focus of the oppositions defence.

Bargnani looked lost most of the time on offence. A major part of that is contrary to some beliefs in that Bargnani had developed a tremendous offensive chemistry with Chris Bosh. Most opportunities, whether it be shots, assists or ball movement were based off of what Bosh did.

The hope is that Bargnani can find his place quickly or his confidence and therefore productivity will suffer greatly. Triano must help this process by implementing some plays early in the shot clock for the italian big man.

Randoms

Sonny and Leandro are fast

Sonny might always fall under the good and bad categories. He's kind of like Joey Graham (with the good Joey and bad Joey) except unlike Graham, Sonny will never disappear while he's on the court.

Speaking of Weems, he looked good on the block a few times.

David Anderson = Matt Bonner?

Jarred Dudley is awesome. If you are a fan of basketball, you have to be a fan of this guy regardless of what team he is for...

This team reminds me of a good College team. I don't know what that means yet but it kept popping in my head and Joey Dorsey mentioned it as well.

- J.Moore

Who, How and Why: MLSE

In somewhat ironic twist I don't want to give any valiant arguments for or against, sway anyone undecided or create any verbal diarrhoea pertaining to the Toronto Raptors.

It's time to report some reporting... Pseuto-media covering the real mccoy.

For years Michael Grange has been covering the Toronto Raptors for the Globe and Mail and along with Doug Smith have been the unequivocal leaders in coverage of the Toronto Raptors. Grange has since left the Raptors beat but has had a special interest in the inner-workings of Maple Leafs Sport and Entertainment, the parent company of the Leafs, Raptors, Toronto FC and multiple side projects that produce millions of dollars.

If you ever asked yourself who, how or why, I would suggest you read this series by Michael Grange and David Shoalts. It is a tremendous source when answering questions on the inner-workings of your favourite Toronto sports team.

MLSE: Too big to win?

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3

Here is also a breakdown of the mirky ownership structure:



A certain mystique will probably always surround the ownership group of MLSE and its true intentions but thanks to M.Grange and D.Shoalts at least a little light has been shed.

- J.Moore

Is There Something I am Missing? (other then the obvious)

I know my words are far reaching and prophetic, so to my audience of maybe 5:

I'm back! At least on a semi-regular basis.

There are many things I would like to touch on going forward- the offseason moves, player profiles, line-up queries and the endless possibilities that springs hope when the team hasn't lost a game.

First I need to touch on something that has me confused.

- - - -

On the surface the move is sound, not only does it make a lot of sense but some would call it a perfect fit that would ease the pain of a strenuous offseason. When looking closer, away from just the x's and o's, expand your mind around the big picture, the rumoured move makes less sense.

Of course I am referring to the Raptors latest pursuit of a veteran center to plug into the starting line-up, this latest revolving around Erick Dampier. Dampier is a big, strong, rugged center that will provide a defensive presence, rebound the ball unlike many in the league can and block shots. On paper, everything the Toronto Raptors have never had the luxury of.

His fit with the Raptors would be near perfect when considering the brass' summer-long plan to move Andrea Bargnani, a slick shooting big man that enjoys his time on the court on the peripherals, back to his 'natural' position of power forward. Dampier has a wealth of experience playing with a guy similar to Bargnani in Dallas- Dirk something?

The problem?

Take a better look at the landscape of the Toronto Raptors. Erick Dampier would be a great complimentary piece to this team if it was in a spot of contention. It is certainly not. Most pundits are placing the local rubber-ballers in the cellar of the eastern conference and even if they over-achieve a playoff spot is a stretch.

This year is about turning a new page and growing/developing a young, athletic, exciting roster with a community until they are at a point to legitimately make a run at the Miami's, Orlando's, Boston's and Chicago's.

Enter Amir Johnson. The Toronto Raptors have just committed money and years to Johnson after a break-out season. He showed a tremendous chemistry with Bargnani and other teammates towards the end of last year and if you have already committed to the man, in a year that little real success is expected, doesn't the team owe it to both Amir and itself to see what the gangly, energetic forward can do in extended starting minutes?

The pursuit of Dampier shows the type on non-linear thought that has been a trademark of Bryan Colangelo of late. Retooling, rebuilding, rebranding, revolting, call it what you will, it's a reality so embrace it.

- J.Moore

Euro Basket era done... For now at least...

There is and will be plenty of things to talk about in the next day or so including Chris Bosh, Lebron James, Collusion, trade exceptions and legacies but for now lets get to the news of the day.

After being locked up like a coiled spring during the Chris Bosh '3 Kings' fiasco, all of general manager Bryan Colangelo's thoughts, permutations and internal science experiments have been released.

The result? Essentially Turkoglu and Calderon gone. Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw and Tyson Chandler in, dramatically reshaping the roster and philosophy of the team once again.

All the details still need to be finalized due to the complexity of the trades but they breakdown somewhere in this neighbourhood:

Toronto trades Turkoglu to Phoenix for Leandro Barbosa and a small portion of Poenix's trade exception ($2 million roughly) or Dwayne Jones.

Toronto Trades Jose Calderon and either the trade exception acquired for Chris Bosh or the combination of Marcus Banks, Reggie Evans and Dwayne Jones/small trade exception from Phoenix to Charlotte for Boris Diaw and Tyson Chandler.

Obviously these moves all have to be ironed out and approved by the league but a quick analysis:

Barbosa

A scoring combo guard that will likely come off the bench for Jarrett Jack or spot start at either guard positions. Barbosa would fit in well with the 'young gunz' because of his willingness to run the floor and incredible quickness. He also gives the Raptors the change of pace point guard they have been looking for now for a few years.

The downfall is that he has suffered through injuries that may limit his strengths.

Boris Diaw

A versatile forward that will most likely fill the void Turkoglu left at the starting small forward position. Diaw can play multiple positions and despite superficial differences is a very similar player to Turkoglu. He can shoot with range, pass the ball, rebound and score. He is not as good as Turkoglu at any of these things, and is more of a post player but has some similar skill sets.

Diaw, much like Turkoglu has had a problem staying in shape and in turn has lead to some consistency issues.

Tyson Chandler

The type of legitimate starting center the Raptors have never had. His rebounding and shot blocking ability combined with his proficiency at the pick and roll and athleticism make him a perfect compliment to Andrea Bargnani.

Injuries have always been Chandlers downfall, he has limited offensive game which may hurt Toronto now that they only have a few offensive threats.

The Outlook

The Raptors have essentially traded 1 1/2 starters for 2 1/2 which when you get down brass tacks is never bad. Let's look at the projected depth chart:

Jack/Barbosa
DeRozen/Weems
Diaw/Kleiza
Bargnani/Davis
Chandler/Johnson

A lot will depend on what type of system they use offensively but there is no doubt that at this point Toronto has a glut of big men. Four man big rotations rarely work and when considering Diaw is more of a power forward then a small forward, coach Jay Triano will have to be very creative with his sets. Using Diaw as a point forward at the 3 spot would open up playing time for all parties.

Offensively the Raptors have diminished since losing Bosh, Calderon and Turkoglu, while some of the offense can be made up from Barbosa and Diaw there is no doubt that the offence could sputter at times this coming year.

Defensively Toronto has the potential to improve exponentially especially on the back end. Chandler, Davis, Alabi and Johnson are all capable shot-blockers and compliment Bargnani well who better excels as a one-on-one defender. While Diaw and Barbosa are not the best defenders either it will be an addition by subtraction by nixing the deficiencies of Calderon and Turkoglu.

The financial implications are the key however. Chandlers deal expires this year, which makes him easily movable at the deadline and should spark a great on-court performance from him in a contract year.

Both Diaw and Barbosa have two years left on their deals as opposed to 3 and 4 years for Calderon and Turkoglu respectively. This gives Colangelo the financial flexibility he covets.

If it turns out that the deal includes Evans and Banks, and does not include our trade exception, this could be a home run for Colangelo.

More to come.

- J.Moore

Bosh to Miami

To Sign and Trade or Not

Call it a high stakes game of poker, a chicken match or staring contest to see who will blink first.

It's a game that at times has to be played in the NBA fraternity and while Bryan Colangelo is not a regular proponent of these games, with so much on the line he has been forced to go all in.

Euphemisms aside, were talking about Chris Bosh joining Dwayne Wade in Miami. That we know is going to happen, at this point it is much more about which conduit will be chosen.

Reports out of Miami last night and this morning state that for the first time Bosh is seriously considering signing outright with Miami and thus forfeiting an extra year on his contract and roughly an extra $30 million that he could receive by working with Toronto on a sign and trade. It has long been reported that both the Raptors and Bosh would work together to benefit both sides.

Time will tell whether Bosh is serious about giving up the money, security and status a max deal would provide but this sudden change in direction likely stems from a deteriorating relationship between the Raptors and Bosh.

The Raptors have been unimpressed with the way Bosh has conducted himself throughout the free agent process. Keeping a vigorous and undying commitment to his twitter account Bosh has seemed to let everyone in accept his soon to be former franchise.

Bosh and his camp likely feel as if they owe the Toronto franchise in which he is the franchise leader in almost every statistical category nothing and feels put off by comments coming out of Toronto.

If spite is all that stands between a sign and trade or not then you have to think one will get done. Bosh has said all along that he is a max player and will accept nothing else. The status alone seems to be a key to Bosh and his ego would probably not allow him to sign alongside Dwayne Wade for less then his counterpart.

Toronto cannot afford to let Bosh go for nothing. They have enough salary obligations that they are not in a full rebuilding mode and would gain no cap relief by letting Bosh go for nothing. The Raptors need any assets they can get to save face and assist the rebuilding process quicker especially when you consider Miami owns the rights to the Raptors 2011 first round pick.

By extrapolating all the factors my educated guess is that this is the snag: Miami wants Toronto to take Beasley not Chalmers because Beasley plays the same position as Bosh and Miami like Chalmers fit-wise with Bosh and Wade. It has been reported that Colangelo has no interest in Beasley and wants to play hardball with Miami after the way they have been recruiting Bosh seemingly much longer then the Collective Bargaining Agreement would allow.

So who blinks first; Colangelo or Riley?

Stay tuned over the next 24 hours, also check my twitter feed for quick updates- @jefmoore

- J.Moore

Player Profile: Amir Johnson

5 Years, $34 Million

Free agency started not with a boom but a sparkle as the first shoe too drop was not Lebron James, Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh but none other then Drew Gooden. Needless to say shockwaves were felt all over the vast NBA landscape. The trend continued with career back-up big men such former second overall pick Darko Millicic signing a deal that would net him a $5 million salary annually and Channing Frye re-upping in Phoenix for $30 million over 5 years.

The local rubber-ballers were not too be shut out on the action by re-signing their own free agent back-up big man Amir Johnson to a $34 million deal that would in theory keep him in Toronto for the next 5 years. The signing of Johnson was not a surprise, it has been long been anticipated with both sides showing a strong commitment to each other in recent months.

What is somewhat surprising is the timing and financial implications. As recently as last week Johnson stated he didn't expect to sign a deal with any team right away, rather he would wait for the dust to settle amongst the big free agents and then make his decision. What may have changed his tune is the fact that the Raptors outbid themselves by offering Johnson $7 million annually.

Strictly from a player personnel move it was the right one. Amir had continued growth all season and seemed to be finding a starting calibre groove towards the end of the season. An excellent compliment to Andrea Bargnani because of his strength on the defensive end, rebounding and blocking shots and offensively getting most of his points in transition, put backs and alley-oops, Johnson doesn't take touches away from Bargnani or Turkoglu (presumed to to have a good shot at returning now).

The money is certainly the problem. Most fans or professional Toronto pundits will try to justify it because they like Amir as a player and the fact that without Chris Bosh Toronto had very little depth in the front court. The fact remains though that Colangelo has once again gambled with house money. Betting that Amir Johnson can be a consistent starter or at the very least play starter minutes even though he has had a penchant for committing fouls at a high clip over his career.

At 23 years old Johnson could still continue to grow and possibly be in the perfect situation to maximize his talents in the pick and roll with either Jose Calderon or Jarrett Jack. The problem right now is that this deal reeks too me of Dan Gadzuric and if you just said 'who?' then that should say it all.

I like the player, I don't like the financial commitment.

The Outlook

So from a bigger perspective, what does this mean for the Raptors? Well at the very least they now have the makings of a front court rotation with Johnson and Bargnani starting and Ed Davis coming off the bench. Athletically at least it matched the combination they had last year with Bosh in the mix and they have the potential to be better defensively but overall will be no comparison to a front court with Bosh.

The interesting angle to look at from this point on is how this signing and Amir fit into the master plan, if Colangelo has one. Conventional wisdom and the talent available always suggested that if Bosh were to be involved in a sign and trade it would involve a big man coming back from the other team. Names such as Andrew Bynum, Taj Gidson, David Lee and even Luis Scola have all been linked to the Raptors.

This now begs a few questions, with the signing of Amir and the drafting of Ed Davis, does that not make some of these names redundant? Can you have a back up making $7 million a year?

We should find out the answer to these question Monday or Tuesday of next week, it is believed that is when Lebron will make his decision with the other (including Chris Bosh) to follow suit.

- J.Moore

Players to Watch

Looking a few weeks ahead

The Toronto Raptors can't and won't be active on the free agent market until the big players make their decision but when they do here are a few names to watch for:

Travis Outlaw

An athletic veteran small forward that can slash to the basket, defend and shoot a bit. Still young enough to warrant potential but been around the league enough to be a true professional. If is Turkoglu is moved, he would be a good player to pair with DeRozen and Weems.

Udanis Haslim

More then likely out of our price range however with so many high profile free agents on the market, especially at the forward position bargains are there for the taking. He would be a solid presence beside Andrea Bargnani providing defence and rebounding. He however will be sought after by other more established contending teams and may even be willing to take a pay cut to come back to Miami.

Ryan Gomes

Traded multiple times and just waived by the Portland Trailblazers, Gomes is a guy that could be had for cheap and is more valuable then his resume suggests. With the ability to play both forward positions and defend he would be a valuable player off the bench for Toronto.

Luke Ridnour

Another player that has been undervalued throughout his career that could be a a great back-up option to either Jose Calderon or Jarrett Jack. He can shoot the ball and while not a dynamic defensive player he competes and plays hard.

Matt Barnes

Should be targeted and offered the full mid-level exception by the Raptors yesterday. The exact type of player the Raptors have loved and need. An excellent defender, can shoot the ball and has a knack for rebounding at his position. With or without Turkoglu Barnes would be a great fit.

Other notable players Toronto should have interest in: Steve Blake, Devin Brown, Kyle Korver, Craig Smith, Chris Wilcox

The Biggest Week in Modern Sports History?

Something Big is Happening

I pride myself in day to day life in being a non-promoter of melodramatics and the escalation of hysterics, but with that out of the way is it too bold to say that this may be the biggest week in not just Basketball, but sports history? With so many of the games biggest stars in play over the upcoming weeks it's hard too fathom another time in modern sports that could live up to the circus that has become July 1, 2010.

In baseball, Alex Rodriguez signing the mammoth contract with Texas that paid him the sum of the monetary world twice over comes to mind. In hockey, the day all of Canada shed a collective tear as Prime Minister Gretzky was traded to the LA Kings to the sound of small violins from the prairies to the coasts. From an economical or player movement standpoint nothing comes to mind with the NFL, except for maybe one of the Manning drafts.

Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Nowitzki, Joe Johnson, Boozer, Amare and now Paul Pierce, these are legitimate top 10-15 players in the league that could all be changing zip codes not to mention the possibility of 2 or even 3 of these men meeting in the same zip code for the next 5 plus years.

One of the more far reaching aspects of this story is how it transcends sport and indicts society in North America that has erupted over the past two decades. The confluence of social networking/social media, reality TV (see TMZ), economics/business of sport, has handcuffed the way multimillion dollar companies and in some cases multibillion dollar men have been doing business by a few athletes and their twitter accounts.

More then a handful of economic giants in the NBA have been doing anything they can to loose games and cuts costs/rosters for the last 5 years. These teams and the players they have sought after have led to a denigrate in the darwinian principals that make up sport. Loosing on purpose has become the trend for teams and for players rivalry has taken a back seat to friendship and man hugs.

Other then that minor stain on the game and society, it's fun right?

I'm excited...

The Big 3

So enough with the social commentary and onto what were all here for right? The Big 3. A lot has and will be published over and around the next 48 hours and there is no sense in rehashing 'published reports' that refute each other because lets be honest, no one knows until the ink dries on the contracts.

I will say this though, while the idea of all the big three or even just two of the big three teaming together and reeking havoc over the next decade maybe the sexy story that sells ESPN and Sports Illustrated 'Insider' subscriptions, it has very little chance of happening.

The only team at this point that could potentially sign all three of Lebron, Wade and Bosh is Miami and what most outlets will fail to mention in these reports is that it will take at least two of the three to take a substantial pay cut. Without getting too far into the nitty gritty of the salary cap and dollar figures the only player that could sign for max value would be Dwayne Wade because he is Miami's own free agent. That would mean that both Lebron and Bosh would be giving up at $30 million over the course of their contracts unless both the Raptors and the Cavaliers decide to partake in a sign and trade.

Considering the only players Miami has on its roster right now is Mario Chalmers, Michael Beasley and the rights to Joel Anthony this would mean both the Raptors and Cavaliers would have to take back 1 player each, a trade exception (of anywhere between 10-15 million dollars which is virtually unmovable, I'll get into that below) and a litany of distant future draft picks.

These are not the best assets in the world for two of the best players in the world. Take into account the Cavaliers have already said they will not be participating in a sign and trade with Lebron and no two General Managers would ever want to be labelled as the men that killed the sport for years to come, it looks unlikely to say the least.

I hesitate to mention the fact that Miami would then have virtually no money left to spend on players to fill 12 roster spots.

The bottom line is that none of The Big Three are not going to take a pay cut, and what team has enough assets to pull off two max-deal sign and trades?

The more likely scenario is that the 'Three' are on different teams in a few weeks with some of the second tier free agents surrounding them.

Think Wade and Amare in Miami, Bosh with Rose and Noah in Chicago, Lebron reunited with Boozer in New York and Joe Johnson with the young core of Lopez and Harris in New Jersey.

Chris Bosh

It would seem according to reports the only options in Bosh's mind would be Miami and Chicago. If you are a Raptors fan you hope that's not true and judging by various reports saying Bosh has not been in contact with his agent Henry Thomas all that much lately and the way he usually keeps his cards close to his vest and conducts himself professionally, I tend to think the list of two is far more media percolation then word from the horses mouth.

The one caveat being the last scenario is dependant on Bosh's previous history of professionalism. Lately he has been doing his best 'Speidi' impression (the infamous couple from 'The Hills' that has perfected media prostitution) and been throwing himself at every media outlet available, it's been unbecoming and one hopes that he reverts back to the old Chris once free agency is over.

The problem with Miami and Chicago is that of all the teams interested in Bosh, they are two that have been unloading assets in an attempt to gain cap space. This in turn has left the cupboard bare for a team like the Raptors to pick from. Let's take a look at a few teams and what they have to offer:

Miami

Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers, and or a trade exception with a first round draft pick.

Analysis

While many are low on Beasley, he is a low risk (1 year left on contract at only 5 million) and high reward player that can get you 15 points a night in his sleep. At the very least he ups his trade value after a season Toronto, at best he thrives with a young athletic group and steps up as a leader.

The trade exception is interesting because if it is in the 10-15 million dollar range as it would be with Miami it would seem to be virtually unmovable. What team is going to give up a presumable allstar for nothing but cap space after the biggest summer in the history of free agency?

Chicago

Taj Gibson, Lual Deng, James Johnson, draft picks.

Analysis

For a while I thought this might be the best trading partner but that was before Joakim Noah was untouchable, the Raptors drafted Ed Davis which makes Taj Gibson somewhat redundant and Chicago traded Kirk Hinrich (whom the Raptors did have interest).

The contract of Deng is bloated and he looks like injuries have already put him past his prime even at a young age. This leave James Johnson, an unproven young player and draft picks.

New York

David Lee, Wilson Chandler, Danillo Gallinari and draft picks.

Analysis

Gallinari is more than likely off the board unless New York gets really desperate, the problem with Lee is that he is a free agent July 1 and will be looking after his own interests so there is no guarantee he will be in play when Bosh decides what he wants to do. Chandler is a decent looking player but is he any better than what DeRozen or Weems could be this year with the right development.

The one thing about New York is that it says here, they'll still be bad next year, so their picks could be high.

Houston

Aaron Brooks, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Patrick Patterson.

Analysis

Everything about a potential deal here is right. Houston has plenty of assets the Raptors would want, Houston has publicly stated more then once they are giving it their best shot to land Bosh and are willing to give up assets for him. There is one problem, reports that Chris Bosh doesn't necessarily want to play in Texas close to home.

The one glimmer of hope you have as a fan of Toronto is that Bosh wants to be wined and dined and pined after. Houston will do that for him and has identified him as their top priority. With that Bosh may decide Houston is the right fit for him alongside Yao.

The Rebuild

So what to expect from our boys next year? Well clearly there are many issues to resolve first that will give us a better picture of the roster, the Bosh deal, a possible Turkoglu deal and the definition of the point guard picture. These deals will all dramatically shape the look of our roster.

One thing is irrefutable though. Whether fans or anyone in the ivory towers of MLSE want to admit it, this is now a rebuilding team. You cannot trade away arguably three of your best players (depending on who goes) and still tread water or heaven forbid get better.

The interesting thing that has bloomed organically this summer is a new quasi core. Usually the core of a team is identified by the General Manager and gets built around, it seems as though this time around, a core has identified itself. On more then one occasion a combination or permutations of Demar DeRozen, Sonny Weems, Amir Johnson and most interestingly Jarrett Jack have been spotted around the city and working out together at the Air Canada Center.

Edit: I would add Joey Dorsey to the list but he is clearly just hanging out in front of the ACC waiting for one of them to come by and let him in.

This is encouraging and noteworthy, the Raptors do not have a long history of young athletic developing players with plenty of potential embracing Toronto like this group has. Add to the mix Ed Davis, Andrea Bargnani even Solomon Alabi and you have the making at least of a team that can be very exciting based on athletics and a running game. Given the right pieces around them they have the potential to be a better defensively as well.

Think about a poor mans Oklahoma City Thunder.

Back to Jack for a second, I will fully admit I am bias because I am in love his intangibles, but the fact that he is putting in the time and commitment to his teammates and the city, I think at the end of the day when the dust clears he has to be the lead guard that stays, not the one that's traded.

Colangelo & Philosophy

Much has been made and will be about Colangelo and his merits as General Manager of this team. Be honest with yourself though, who else would you want making the biggest decisions this franchise has faced in a very long time.

Babcock? Another young assistant GM without a tenth of the clout or respect Colangelo commands?

Were not getting the likes of Buford, Kupchak, Ainge or even Ferry anytime soon.

This is not to say Bryan doesn't have his warts. His core philosophy of building an powerful offensively dynamic team that looks to score without defensive personnel and a heavy European influence has never proven to get a team past the conference finals and in his current teams case out of the first round.

However he has the chance to build around some young athletic horses and if he can admit defeat and tweak his philosophy, now is the time and this is the roster to do it with. If only for the fact he has now employed almost every Euro in the league.

More to come, get ready for a fun week into month.

- J.Moore

Trade talk on an off day/week

"It's the most wonderful time of the year!"

As the lyric goes of course.

No the sun isn't shining, the grass isn't growing, the leafies are doomed for permanent paralysis but on the bright side, the NBA trade deadline is fast approaching and most years it is like a beacon of sunshine that will give 30 fan bases across North America a glimmer of hope amidst a dark NBA midline.

For the local claw clan (is that a weird inference?), the deadline looms more then it does shine. This year things are a little more serious and convoluted then the simple notion that can just add a player that will push Toronto A) into the playoffs B) to build towards the playoffs C) will make the team a legitimate contender. It is also not a tool that will help us dump salary in a race to be the worst overall team in the league and have a shot at John Wall (who seems to be 'the next...' this year).

This years version of the deadline has no finite line to follow if you one Mr. Bryan Colangelo, the smooth talking, needle sharp dressing, basketball theologian at the helm of our not so glorious franchise. What Colangelo does, or does not do this trade deadline could very well determine the future of this franchise for the next 5 years.

I do not pretend to know the answer, as the line goes 'it's above my pay grade' but I do know that there seems to be 3 most likely possibilities or storylines to follow as the tale unfolds. I thought I'd be a swell fella and outline them for you.

3 scenario's

Trade Bosh

I believe this scenario is not likely to happen but with so much hype leading up to the summer of 2010, some GM's may have a itchy trigger finger and jump the gun thinking they may not get a shot at Bosh in the summer with so many other teams in the mix. In this scenario that said team would have to be overpaying for his temporary services and feel like they had a legitimate shot at resigning the regal-looking big man.

The key is that someone would be overpaying in a package that Colangelo would be a fool to refuse. Even if Bosh has privately told Colangelo that he will not look to resign in the offseason (which I don't think he has/will), Colangelo still believes he can pull off a sign and trade at seasons end and that there will be more teams in play during the offseason, thus bringing back better returns. I think Colangelo is right and given his track record, I would be comfortable with this scenario.

So what would be expect to get back?

The ideal scenario would be to get back a young, legitimate center, that is under contract for a few years and has potential. The other piece that would make the trade a huge success would be getting a veteran starting calibre shooting guard on a short term deal, no longer then 1 year. Draft picks are always welcome as cherries on top.

The key would be to get a young center that plays a more traditional game. This would allow Bargnani to move to his more natural position, the power forward (4 spot) and would hopefully give some intimidation factor on defence.

I have never been, and am still not convinced that this starting frontline can win a championship together, a lot of games yes, but championship no.

Edit: This does not necessarily mean Andrew Bynum, nor am I referring to this specific deal. A few things to remember when it comes to this and other rumoured transactions:

A) Source- This came from Peter Vecsey of the New York Post. Anything coming from that space must be taken with a grain of salt this particular writer's professional credibility parallels Stephen A. Smith's.

B) Read the full article, not the headline- In the third paragraph of the article Vecsey clearly states why the deal cannot happen, then continues on about how 'cool' it would be.

C) Salaries- Bynum's deal is a base year compensation deal, this means that only half of the players salary counts against the cap. Bynum is making roughly $12 million per year which means only 6 would count against the cap. Bosh makes roughly $15 million per year.

Trade Calderon

I want make this clear. I do think Calderon is an outstanding point guard. I do not prefer Jarrett over Jose or Jose over Jarrett. I do think Hedo Turkoglu needs to play better. I do think Calderon and Turkoglu have to potential to co-exist on the floor and be very good together.

That being said...

I do believe that this team could be successful in a scenario where Jarrett Jack was the primary point guard, Hedo Turkoglu spends some time as the primary back up point running the pick and roll with the caveat being another backup point was acquired that is a good shooter and someone who could defend the point position.

An ideal scenario would be to get back a veteran starting calibre shooting guard on a short term contract (no longer then the end of next year) and through this deal or another individual deal a back up point that can shoot and defend.

This deal would be built around winning now, with a quality shooting guard the team would be formidable. The problem is, depending on the deal, this could hinder the franchise if the playoffs do not go well and/or Bosh leaves in the offseason.

The other problem is that player does not really exist. Some names:

Rip Hamilton- I immediately thought of him and Will Bynum, unfortunately Hamilton's deal is big and for 3 more years after this. Both his deal and Turkoglu's would handcuff the franchise for years and stunt the development of DeRozen and possibly Weems.

Josh Howard- 1 year left after this, does Dallas need another point guard?

Cory Maggette- 3 more years after this, and the point guard is redundant again.

John Salmons- Salaries may be too far off and Chicago is looking for expiring deals to compete in this summers free agency.

Mike Dunleavy Jr.- May be the most plausible but also may be for bad reason. Dunleavy has 1 year left on his deal after this and can shoot but is making a lot of money and cannot stay healthy.

Caron Butler- I only mention because he is every Raptor fans dream. The key there is dream, as in pipe. There is virtually no way this deal can happen.

Do Nothing

This is the most likely scenario for good reason. The reality is that the Raptors are in a hunt for the 4th and more realistically 5th seed in the playoffs, have been playing some of their best basketball of the last 2 years lately and have virtually no need to 'rock the boat'. Colangelo's safest bet is to stand pat, hope that the Raptors can make some noise or at least play competitive basketball in the playoffs, and hope that Chris Bosh will buy into Colangelo and Toronto.

This of course is just hope and thus where the flaw is in this plan. Toronto could potentially sign Bosh back, develop internally, use the mid-level exception wisely over the next two years and attain the same success following the same path Orlando has.

- - - -

My opinion is that the first option is best case scenario. This team, presently assembled, does not look like it is a championship calibre team and if Colangelo hits the lottery with a overwhelming Bosh trade, he has to pull the trigger.

Should make for an interesting few weeks!

- J.Moore

Weather Report: the forecast is calling for falling skies...

1 win, 2 losses

The beauty of sport, even involving the Raptors, is that just when you think you have figured it all out and the ball is crystal clear things get thrown in upheaval by a meaningful unexpected win, or a surprisingly devastating loss.

The piece almost wrote itself, the Raptors were rolling, only losing to a team (albeit twice) that is superior to them in many ways and has always been a thorn in their side. The claw wearing honorary Torontonians looked like they had turned the corner and were going make a push for home court in the playoffs and what do they do? Give up a 23 point lead in Indiana, a team at a boiling point teetering on the edge, and lose, obviously...

This is a bad loss, there is no one that will dispute that, however it may not be as bad as some may tell you. Entering the opening tip I thought that this may be a tricky game because historically when the Raptors play teams that can score in bunches Toronto plays with an indifference on the defensive end that allows those teams to right any offensive ineptitude that may be plaguing them throughout the contest. This certainly happened last night.

It is not that the Raptors didn't compete. Just take a look at the game footage of Andrea Bargnani, who at least one dope (me) believes may have had one of his best games of his career. Bargnani was fully 'engaged' in this game right from the start, his shot was not falling but he was incredibly active on the defensive end finishing the game with a career high 17 rebounds and 3 blocked shots.

Chris Bosh went to the 'freebee line' as an old coach used to call it, 20 times in the contest and was trying actively to make something happen. Even Turkoglu, who needs to be much better than he is right now, looked very active on both ends of the court. This was prevalent early on as he tried to make positive things happen for his team.

While the Raptors were clicking on every cylinder they had offensively; Antoine Wright hit a shot... A 45 foot shot no less, Rasho Nesterovic looked like an offensive juggernaut in the 10 minutes he played. The problem was Toronto did not play with the defensive urgency they had played with so often in the last month and let a streaky offensive team right the ship.

These Raptors over the past 5 years or so have been notorious, as most teams are I would suggest, when it comes to let down games. Are they a mentally tough team? I would still say no. I do believe though, that there is more mental toughness in this team than they have displayed some nights and this may be a wake up call for a team looking to turn the corner.

At this point in the season there are no must win games, every game is a must win there are only missed opportunities. There have been many so far and there will continue to be, the hope is that they are few and far between.

With 3 days off until the next game, plenty of time to prepare, practice and think about what went wrong in this last affair, hopefully a regained focus will be the result.

- - - -

Touch Passes

Mendoza line no more?

It has been declared more than a few times in this 'internet code' that this team is merely the Mendoza line for NBA teams, and that we should not expect much more than to win against bad teams handily and fail to compete against good teams.

Well I know it's hard to believe, I have a hard time writing this next line as well, but maybe I was wrong. For most Raptor fans, the fact that I may be wrong has never felt so right.

As discussed before there were the 'statement' games against a foggy looking San Antonio team that looked like they were still in their hotel room for most of the first half. There was also the win against an Orlando team that was in disarray, that made Raptor faithful believe just a little more.

What this piece will point to is the Boston game 2 days ago. No they did not win and there weren't many points in the game where it looked like they were going to win but what they did do, in a rather elementary statement, was compete. That cannot be discredited as something one would expect because all too often against Boston over the last 3 years versions of the Raptors have showed up looking like scared children about to get beaten on by a big brother.

It looked for one afternoon at least like the little brother had grown up, and may be gaining some confidence.

- - - -

Finding an Identity?

Many times when a team is struggling or when a team is great pundits and prognosticators, analysts and panelists will talk about identity. What a team 'hangs its hat on' when push comes to shove. Considering most Raptors have never been in a fight before this never seemed to be something that was prevalent in past versions of the Raptors. Over this last month however, we have been seeing more keys to success that have developed into this team's identity.

We all know what the coaches are preaching; hold the opposition to a low field goal percentage, pack the paint, contest long jump shots. That makes sense.

We all know that when the Raptors hold the opposition to under 100 points they are undefeated. We also know the new indicator that the last 10 times DeMar DeRozen has scored 10 or more points, the Raptors are victorious.

What had become clear only anecdotally is that over this recent hot stretch it seemed that when the Raptors won games, their second unit was forcing turnovers and creating fast break points. This seemed to be the key to winning games over the last month or so, so why not looked closer.

14 games:

9 wins, 5 losses

In 9 wins the Raptors forced 13.5 turnovers per game.
In 5 losses the Raptors forced 13.2 turnovers per game.

Obviously my logic and eyes had deceived. However, when looking at fast break points, things become clear.

In 9 wins the Raptors have averaged 19.7 fast break points per game.
In 5 losses the Raptors have averaged 10 fast break points per game.

To further the point, omit the one outlier from this (the loss against Boston when Toronto had 26 fast break points) and Toronto has averaged only 6 fast break points per game.

It becomes clear that the Raptors need to push the tempo in order to be successful, we had heard this lament before, and now here is the evidence.

The other piece of anecdotal analysis that got me thinking (which is utterly silly) was when the coaching staff focused on limiting 3 point field goals made by the opposition in wins against Orlando and San Antonio. It worked, and the thought crossed my mind that with NBA so focused on 3 point shooting instead of post play in this new era, could this be the key defensively?

The numbers would indicate so:

18 previous games

11 wins and 7 losses

In 11 wins the Raptors held opposition to 4.3- 3 point field goals made.
In 7 losses the Raptors allowed opposition to make 9- 3 point field goals

A discrepancy of 14.1 points per game.

- - - -

The Dino's are now off until Friday when they will play the Knickerbockers in New York and I would expect a very well prepared and energetic Toronto team with 3 days of rest. The key will be controlling Nate Robinson who tends to play well against Toronto and also Danillo Gallinari who has a mean stroke from 3 point land.

For Toronto it will be to push the ball, but the key is to do it efficiently. New York's depth is an issue for them so it would be wise to wear out their starters, but the key will be discipline and not getting into a 3 point shoot out.

- J.Moore

Winning, Chris Bosh, Point Guards and the future!

7 wins to 1 loss

This was, is and will be the stretch that was/is going to define the season of the Toronto Raptors and more importantly both the short and long term future of a franchise in need of something positive and tangible in a city desperate for sporting hope.

Could you expect anymore from this team over the last 8 games? Well, yes. The loss to a team without 3 of it's starters and 4 out of their 6 best players is still unfortunate at best and more realistic worrisome when taking into account the fact they looked like they were playing scared for most of the night.

That loss Massachusetts aside there is some good barley brewing in Toronto these days. The first 5 games during this stretch were against sub par opponents with records below .500 however a win is a win and the fact there were no mental blips is encouraging. Through that stretch though, and especially after the Boston loss I was still steadfast in my opinion of the Raptors being the NBA Mendoza line.

Two wins can really give you some perspective can't it? Most were calling the San Antonio win a statement game because of the fact the Raptors still hadn't won against a top tier opponent. However, being at home, with Tim Duncan not starting starting and the Spurs seemingly taking a win for granted during much of the first half I was still not convinced of these Raptors' defensive merits I have been hearing about.

Last night was a statement as far as this space is concerned. The stars were aligned and a blow out was looming. Aside from the fact that what Orlando does best (shoot 3 point shots) is one of the things that Toronto does worst (give up open 3 point shots), Toronto had come off a big win at home, was feeling quite proud of itself and was playing on the road against a team that has owned them, a let down was probable.

Orlando was coming off of two straight losses to teams in Chicago and Indiana that shouldn't be able to touch Orlando. Vince Carter had come off 3 straight poor games shooting well below .40% from the field and one could just see the story unfolding the way it always seems too.

Something happened though that is quite intriguing going forward. The Raptors showed some serious 'intestinal fortitude' and more importantly and surprisingly mental toughness at various points in the contest. While most remember that the Dino's were up after 1 quarter and the half the game did not start out well for the Raptors. Howard was a human dunk machine and it looked like he was going to dominate and the defence would be swiss cheese like in consistency. It would have been easy for the Raptors to fold like origami.

Toronto got good quick after that. In what has become a staple in wins, the 2nd quarter showed the Raptors forcing turnovers and playing an effective running game which built up a lead. Andrea Bargnani played some absolutely inspired defence and helped to force 9 turnovers by Dwight Howard and frustrate him most of the night.

Bargnani's offense was also solid if not spectacular most of the night punctuated by hitting two big 3 point shots at the end of the game which for all intensive purposes won Toronto the game.

That was a statement, and a good one at that.

- - - -

Calderjack vs Jackeron

Of course as only Toronto could produce, one of the biggest story lines around the team (around meaning externally and most definitely not internally yet) is yet another point guard controversy. While the term 'controversy' may be a little strong at this point there sure seems to be a lot of talk and opine about the subject.

This goes out to Jay Triano. Do yourself and favour and protect your behind, no one will persecute for sticking with the old 'not broke, don't fix' adage. At this point many are pointing to the fact that with Jarrett Jack as the teams starting point guard the team is winning and playing much better defence.

I think for the most part saying Calderon's absence has been the golden fleece thats made the Raptors click and win games borders on 'Gilbert-ism' in wisdom. Toronto has played bad teams, and won. If Calderon was the starter they probably would have done the same thing.

At the same time I do believe that Jack bring more balance to the starting line up from a defensive perspective, combine that with the fact that Calderon has proven to be a game changer in the past coming off the bench and the team is winning and the answer is clear; stick with what is working.

If the team looses a couple at some point it is a perfect opportunity to insert your 8 million dollar a year point guard back into the starting position and the business end of the sport makes sense again.

The bottom line is that there is not enough of a discrepancy between these two players and the minutes that they will play to name a definitive starter. Both men are high in character and have shown the ability to swallow their pride.

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Tis the season!

Were fast approaching a most exciting time of the year where trade speculation is rampant and every player on every roster is trade bait for LeBron, Kobe, Wade and even Bosh. If your a Raptor fan looking for movement then you will most likely be disappointed this year and for good reason.

The last 8 games have given a lot of the fans hope, more importantly, rightly or wrongly they have also affirmed Bryan Colangelo's vision of this team being a legitimate playoff contender.

We can debate the merits of whether or not you or I think that Jose Calderon is a legitimate #1 elite point guard, or whether or not this team, the way it's presently built, can contend in the playoffs and make it past the first round but the bottom line is not what we think, but what Colangelo believes.

Calderon is here to stay, Colangelo signed him to the contract he now has and at this point he is the point guard of a playoff team.

Chris Bosh? Do not even think about it. Colangelo still believes he has a chance at signing him at seasons end. If the team continues to prove over the next few months I think the former executive of the year has a real shot. Bosh has talked openly many times about how he thinks teams should stay intact and build internally like great teams of yesteryear.

The only thing Colangelo may be looking to is a starting caliber shooting guard on the last year of his contract that the Raptors could get for cheap, but those players don't grow on trees and it is more likely the Raptors keep the status quo and let DeRozen, Weems and Belinelli develop on the wing.

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Looking ahead

The rest of the month break down as follows:

6 home games (Boston, Dallas, Milwaukee, LA Lakers, Miami, Indiana)
6 away games (Philadelphia, Indiana, New York, Cleveland, Milwaukee, New York)

7 games against teams sub .500 (Milwaukee x2, New York x2, Indiana x2, Philadelphia)
5 games against teams over .500 (Boston, Dallas, LA, Miami, Cleveland)

Therefore if the math took care of itself (which is a big if) the Raptors would be sitting at a record of 25-23 setting up a very favourable February which also may coincide with the return of Reggie Evans.

There are many if's still to be cleared up, and the games still have to be played but combine the schedule with the recent play and there is room for definitive hope in Toronto.

- J.Moore

Checking in before the Holidays

Hello,

It's been a while hasn't it? I feel somewhat like I am in an awkward first conversation with an ex-girlfriend soon after a break up. Is there any ill feelings fluttering about? I have not been in communication for a while, it really is a flaw of mine.

I will not bore with the details because in the end this is about semi-professional basketball (the Raptors) here not about my life but a convolution of work, school, life and a vacation to Florida with a few buddies that would write better as a screen play then a blog have kept this page stale for far too long.

But I am back! (to the delight of maybe half a dozen)

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8 wins to 11 losses

This is the Raptors record since I last chimed in on the landscape of Toronto basketball. Many things have unfortunately stayed the same but one key aspect on the Raptors' outlook has changed, and unfortunately for the worse.

The Same

Have they tried that key aspect to the game yet that most call 'defense'? Didn't think so... The boys in red (or black, or white, or now blue) are still by far the league's worst defensive team giving up 115.1 point per 100 possessions. Being last in the league in defense is embarrassing enough for any team but if you look a little closer things get worse.

Few things have remained the same around the Toronto Raptors over the last 5 years. Bryan Colangelo looks deadly in an Italian-made, perfectly tailored suit, Chris Bosh looks like a dinosaur which in the very least should prevent him from leaving, Jose Calderon's hair keeps thinning and The Raptors cannot play defense. In the past, excuses were be bandied about that the system was the problem, the overall talent was the problem, and finally that the players had tuned the coach out.

But now heading into the season, there was a new coach, a major injection of talent with some supposed defensive stoppers in Johnson, Jack, Wright and Evans, and more than anything the focus would be on defense to the point where they even hired a coach specifically for that end of the court.

The result have been awful. Not only are we last in the league in defense but we are 3.4 points behind Memphis with Zach Randolph as their anchor and 8.4 points behind the league average. For a team with this much talent, and with such a 'commitment' to defense, to call the season a disappointment thus far is as much of an understatement as claiming Matt Bonner doesn't seem to fit into the NBA image.

The Difference

We are not 10 games into the season anymore. There can be no prevailing wisdom that this team still needs to find itself, needs time to gel or that a better reflection of the team will come with time. The team is what it is, it has found itself and what it has found so far has been mediocre at best.

Some of the most alarming change has been in the verbiage people around the team are using to reason the lack of success the team has had on most nights. Instead of words like patience, learning or improvement we are hearing lack of heart, hustle and focus most nights after a loss.

This team has the ability to play some semblance of defense and has the talent to be a top 6 team in the Eastern Conference, in that there is no doubt but this fact makes things even worse. Fans only want to see a team compete and play their hardest every night. This team runs the risk of alienating a superb fan base in the way they play every other game.

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Touch Passes

Barometer

Remember way back in early November I had posted a piece on how the Raptors seemed to be a barometer for teams around the NBA?

Lets revisit that idea. Let us take December as a sample, they have a record of 6 wins and 6 losses. 4 out of the 6 wins were against teams with inferior records than the Raptors and most would acknowledge that the Raptors are a better team then both New Orleans and Houston (the two wins with better records) based on talent alone. 5 out of the 6 losses have come against teams with better records than the Raptors with the exception of Washington on the 1st of the month. More alarming and poignant is that the average margin in a win is 12 points and average margin of defeat is 18 points.

The point is that while after the last two wins where most analysts and pundits may be making a case for hope in that the Raptors are improving defensively the reality is that they are simply the Mendoza line for NBA teams. Bad teams will loose to the Raptors based on talent alone, good teams will beat them because the Raptors still at this point approaching the midway point do not have any command on most games.

They are a product of the other teams inequity or superiority.

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The upcoming schedule and aftermath

Onto some hope?

It has been well documented that if the Raptors are going to make a move to save the season, it will be over the next month. Before the last 2 wins, Toronto played 8 out of the next 12 games against teams with loosing records with plenty of time off in between games. They have started off well wining the first two, but here are two scripts that could be written:

The Romantic Comedy

- Hedo gets hot, starts to perform well and hit shots at the end of the game
- Belinelli shoots himself out of the slump and is a solid consistent contributor off the bench
- The second unit continues to be a strength creating turnovers and transition baskets
- DeRozen dunks, Weems dunks, Johnson dunks
- Raptors win 8 or 9 out of 12
- Calderon and Evans come back and the Raptors look like the team we thought they would be

The Horror Film

- Continued games where Turkoglu and Bargnani do not show up and look disinterested
- Banks and Weems gain too much confidence and try to do too much
- Team takes games for granted and is unfocused opposition easily scores over 100 points
- Raptors only win 4 or 5 games out of 12
- Calderon and Bosh both silently put on the trading block
- A new rebuilding process starts

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The Young Guns

Apparently a security guard who has been working for the Raptors for the past four years has taken a shine to the young members of this years squad and has created a nickname for the energetic group that has done its fair share of damage over the past few games. Willis Richardson, who would seem to be a more interesting story then the Raptors most nights, has named the trio of DeMar DeRozen, Sonny Weems and Amir Johnson the 'Young Guns'.

While these 'cute' nicks have come up in the past, usually created by the self proclaimed 'Swirsk', like the 'Banger Brothers' referring to little used much forgotten about big men Robert Archibald and Lonny Baxter (who is now in the joint for arms possession) and the Killer B's referring to front-court mates Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani, none have really had staying power.

This group is intriguing though. Sonny Weems has firmly supplanted himself in the rotation ahead of Antoine Wright and now with Marco Belinelli in a most egregious shooting slump Weems has played upwards of 30 minutes some nights. DeRozen has had his ups and downs this season and Amir Johnson's outstanding play has been well documented and deservedly so. This group has done a great job of turning good defense into turnovers into fast break opportunities into highlight reel dunks.

This a group that has to be exciting on two levels, both for the present and future. It says here they should get increased time together to build on the cohesion they already seem to have and are all young with plenty of potential and most importantly controlled by the Raptors for at least one more year after this.

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The injured player dichotomy

There is no doubt that Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks have been everything the Raptors have expected and in both cases more. Johnson has been the most consistent Raptor outside of Chris Bosh in his ability to compete every night and bring energy and hustle off the bench. Marcus Banks, in his limited time coming off the bench has taken advantage of the minutes he has been given with Calderon out. He has defended well and brought enough stability to a young second unit to either keep us in games and on the odd night the unit has become game changers.

What do you do when the injured players come back? Banks' situation would seem to be more clear cut, there is no doubt that Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack are the more talented players but if this team wins the 7 or 8 out of the next 10 games and the and Banks' second unit continues to be a strength causing turnovers and run outs for dunks is there any wavering? The one thing Banks is doing is proving that he is an asset as a competent back up point guard and that turns him into an asset.

With the Raptors 3 point shooting slumping lately may we see the Matt Carroll trade revisited in the next month?

The Johnson/Evans situation is murky. Throughout the early part of the season the saviour for everything bad that has happened to the Raptors has been Reggie Evans. Toughness, rebounding, grit, hustle, athleticism are the common denominators that Evans brings but don't those attributes sounds familiar? Ah yes, that is what Amir Johnson continues to provide all season long.

The prevailing wisdom is to find a way to get Johnson more minutes and while I do think we need Evans' overall impact on the game it will be hard to cut into Johnson's minutes.

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It is truly hard to say with team will show up throughout the remainder of this soft part of the schedule or whether internal improvement is still possible but for now the outlook looks good. That is to say until they play a team with a winning record and loose by 18.

Check in then and the mood will be quite different...

- J.Moore

Posting up the Regular season- Sometimes these things write themselves...

The script was written, sent out to the studio and immediately was put into production, but instead of using their improvisational skills the Raptors stuck to the words on paper and payed for it in the end.

No, this is not a career ending film, like say 'Look who's talking?' by Travolta, it may only end up being a blip in the radar like 'Stuck on you' was for Matt Damon. The Raptors may still have a 'Bourne' franchise or a 'The Departed' in them, but until Triano is more Scorsese than Schumacher and the Raptors are collectively more the ensemble cast of 'Crash' than 'High School Musical' things are not going to turn out well.

Entering into last night's game all the ingredients were their for a bad Raptors performance, and the Nuggets used them. The problem is that the Raptors struggle with athletic, dynamic, physical players. They just do not have the personnel to match any of those attributes.

So while a front court of Nene and Martin do not scare the rest of the league with any large degree, they are precisely the kind of players that kill the Raptors and defend our two best players (Bosh and Bargnani) well. The Raptor bigs had to attack early to get the Nugget big men frustrated and in foul trouble and because of either the officiating or lack of execution that did not happen.

The Raptors had to either try to shut down 2 of the Nuggets best 3 offensive players or more realistically hope they had an off game. Well, Carmelo Anthony looked extremely impressive (thats an understatement) scoring 16 points in the first quarter, seemingly at will, on route to a 32 point performance on 12-15 shooting from the field.

When he took some time off in the 2nd quarter, JR Smith simply outdid him scoring 19 points in the 2nd quarter hitting 4 shots from 3 point range on route to a 29 point performance and even though the score was tied at half, the game was essentially over.

When the eventual 3rd quarter run came by Denver, their players were too hot at that point and the Raptors were too gassed from the physical beating and the mile high city's thin air.

The Good

Marco Belinelli

Even though the record overall is not where the players or Raptors' brass want it do be, and even though they are in the midst of a 2 game skid on a tough road trip, things are starting to slowly fall in place the way Bryan Colangelo envisioned in the offseason.

Marco Belinelli is one of those moving parts. Colangelo saw him as a scorer off the bench that could do multiple things on the offensive end challenge for most improved player.

Well it has started to take shape on this road trip. Belinelli has averaged 14 point per game and has now consistently over 3 games given the Raptors the kind of offensive spark they have needed, at times hitting back breaking 3 point shots and getting to the basket enough to keep his defender honest.

Coming into the season, I had likened him as the anti-Kapono in that he is a streaky shooter that will shoot his way into the game if he needs to, can drive the ball to the basket without turning the ball over and is willing to accept contact. The other less tangible element is that unlike Kapono, it seems when the Raptors are going on a run and need a big 3 point shot,elinelli is there to take it and usually makes it.

DeMar DeRozen

For most of the first half of the season at least, this is what DeMar is going to look like. He is going to have games where he plays just under 20 minutes and for the most part looks invisible. Then there are going to be those good games every 4 or so that give the fans hope.

DeRozen hit a couple early jumpers last night that were in the flow of the game and seemed to get him engaged. He ended the night with 17 points (career high), some of which were on athletic plays at the rim which we expect but he also hit a couple mid range shots and even a corner 3 point shot, which he looks more comfortable taking.

If DeMar can continue to work on his jump shot, and utilize it in the efficient way he has so far, the second half of the season he could play more of a meaningful role.

Sonny Weems

I have always said this about Weems; when Sonny is on the floor things happen. Sometimes they are good things, sometimes they are bad but they happen and overall that's a good thing.

Too often players come in the game and are spectators. There is a fine line between forcing the action and letting the game come to you, but so far in the time that Weems has gotten he has been on the right side of that line.

Coming out of College, the scouting report was that he had a decent jump shot, and it has looked better in the last few games. The two main things that Sonny has done to earn the coach's respect though, is that he has gotten to the rim and has a good nose for the ball that allows him to track down loose balls and long rebounds.

The Bad

Stagnation

There were more then a few times last night when you saw exactly why the Raptors like Turkoglu so much and why they paid him so much money. Last year, the Raptors still had a good enough offense to win games but at certain key times in the game like at the end of quarters/game or during key runs by the opposition the offense would get stagnant.

Hedo Turkoglu keeps the offense fluid. He knows where to pass the ball and if in the event that the pass isn't there, he is offensively talented enough to score at any time and thus end an offensive drought.

There are going to be times this year where the defense is not there, and what keeps the Raptors in games is the fact that they can go shot for shot with anyone in the league. Last night, without Turkoglu, they could not keep pace because their offense went stagnant a few possessions too many.

Antoine Wright

I am no where near ready to give up on Antoine Wright as a good veteran rotation player because of one bad game, but defensive stopper? I am having my doubts.

Wright is a very good team defender in that he rotates well, communicates on defense and takes charges because of his anticipation. I have yet to see him stop or slow anyone down and last night was no exception. As sated above Carmelo scored half of his points (16) in the first quarter where his primary defender was Wright.

Anthony is a great player and no one in the league can really guard him but he missed only two shots in the first quarter. Lets not be so willing to appoint Wright as our defensive saviour.

Andrea Bargnani

For one night at least Andrea reverted to some old bad habits. He picked up some early fouls which took him out of the line up. He was not tough enough inside on Nene and let the Brazilian big man to get position early and often right under the basket and on offense stayed on the perimeter shooting jump shots rather then attacking the paint (with the exception of a massive dunk on Chris Anderson).

If the Raptors had any chance of winning they needed Bargnani to have a big game. He needed to have one of his games where he got the the foul line, used an assortment of post-ups, drives, crafty pump fakes and the long ball to score and right from the opening tip he just did not seem to be engaged.

Coach Jay Triano might be wise to run a couple plays early for Andrea to get him involved and have the ball in his hands early. This may open up all other facets of Bargnani's game.

Referees

For the most part I think that blaming the referees is a cop out and a bad excuse because a few bad calls seldom cost you the whole game but much of the Raptors success last night was predicated on Bosh getting to the line, abusing the Nuggets' big men and getting them in foul trouble so that when Toronto decided to double team Carmelo Anthony, he did not have Kenyon Martin or Nene to dump the ball off too.

Bosh came into the game averaging 12 free throw attempts per game and finished the night 1-2 from the free throw line. This was not a case of Bosh being jump shot happy, there too many times to count where Bosh would take the ball inside on a drive or offensive rebound, get hit and have nothing to show for it.

Conversely Carmelo Anthony got to the line 10 times last night.

The Outlook

Tonight the Raptors are in Utah where the Jazz have been idle for a few days with plenty of time to prepare for the tired Raptors. The Jazz will also have the services of one of the best point guards in the game Deron Williams.

The Raptors do match up well with the Jazz so it will be important to bring the same kind of effort they did against the Suns and bring it early. If Toronto can get off to a good start and get some confidence it will be a winnable game and be a good finish the the road trip.

It will be interesting to see how they respond on a back to back and hopefully Turkoglu will be back in the line-up to give them a jolt. If not, we may see more Sonny Weems and maybe even Pops Mensa-Bonsu in more meaningful minutes because Toronto will be tired.

- J.Moore